A Look into the Markets
This past week interest rates were essentially unchanged from the previous week, and what was a relatively “quiet” week. Let’s discuss what happened and look at the week ahead.
“Yeah, yeah, yeah…I really had a blackout, baby” – Blackout by the Scorpions.
The Blackout Period
As we approach the next Federal Reserve meeting, there is a blackout period, where no Federal Reserve members hold any speeches or make comments on monetary policy. The speeches by Federal Reserve members can often move the financial markets and interest rates, often in a volatile fashion. So, the absence of Fed speakers this past week was a welcome break from the added volatility.
The blackout period will end next Thursday, the day after the next Fed meeting. With a rate hike widely expected, there will be plenty to comment on once this quiet period ends.
Global Inflation Easing
Interest rates and financial markets are influenced by economic conditions around the globe. This past week several countries, including the UK, and the Eurozone reported a larger-than-expected decline in inflation. As inflation eases around the globe, it lowers expectations of further central bank rate hikes and lowers rates. The opposite is true, so seeing inflation recede, especially in Europe, was a welcome sign and it added to some of the relief in rates here at home.
To Hike or Not to Hike
Next Wednesday at 2:00 pm ET, the Federal Reserve will release its monetary policy statement and interest rate decision. The markets are now fully pricing in a .25% rate hike to the Fed Funds Rate. Remember, the Fed rate hike affects short-term loans like credit cards, automobiles, and home equity lines of credit.
Despite some of the softening inflation news here at home, the markets are getting a sense that this rate hike next Wednesday will be the last. It is too early to tell if that is the case. Next Friday’s release of the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE), the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge, may very well determine if this is the last rate hike. Should the reading come in lower than expected, the Fed may indeed take a break from hiking rates. Once again, the opposite is true.
3.70%
Over the past couple of weeks, interest rates have improved, with the 10-year yield moving from 4.09% down to 3.75%. For rates to improve further, the 10-year needs to move beneath 3.70%, a layer of yield support. Yield support prevents interest rates from improving. What will determine if the 10-year can move beneath 3.7%? Next week’s huge dose of new which will be the Fed meeting, GDP and the inflation reading.
Bottom line: As stated above, next week is a big one for interest rates, and the financial markets overall. The Fed, which has already hiked interest rates 500 basis points over the last 18 months, may finally come to an end. The Fed meeting typically generates multiple market responses. The first of which happens upon the release of the actual statement at 2:00 pm ET on Wednesday. The next takes place at the press conference where Fed Chair Powell will answer questions that can lead to some off-script or contradictory remarks, and the final reaction will be next Thursday when markets get to sleep on what they all heard.
Looking Ahead
Key events next week will shape the economic landscape going forward given the Fed meeting and the closely watched inflation reading Core PCE.
Mortgage Market Guide Candlestick Chart
Mortgage bond prices determine home loan rates. The chart below is a one-year view of the Fannie Mae 30-year 6.0% coupon, where currently closed loans are being packaged. As prices go higher, rates move lower and vice versa.
On the right side of the chart, you can clearly see how prices hit key resistance or a ceiling at 101 and were pushed lower. Home loan rate improvement from here will be limited in the absence of a break above this tough ceiling. Next week’s news could certainly provide the spark for this to happen.
Chart: Fannie Mae Mortgage Bond (Friday July 21, 2023)
Economic Calendar for the Week of July 24 – 28
